Forecasting Coffee Exports to the United States Using the Holt-Winters Exponential Method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29303/emj.v7i1.202Keywords:
Exports, Forecasting, Holt-Winters Exponential MethodAbstract
A study was conducted to estimate coffee exports to the United States using the Holt-Winters Exponential method. The aim of this research is to project coffee export activity over the next four periods. Data on coffee exports to the United States from 2000 to 2022 was obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics and used as a research object. The range of values used in this study is between 0.1 and 0.5 for α, between 0.1 and 0.5 for β, and between 0.1 and 0.9 for ϒ. The results of this research state that it is estimated that in 2023, Indonesia will export coffee to the United States amounting to 61,332.60 tons, in 2024 amounting to 60,661.50 tons, in 2025 amounting to 61,563.27 tons, and in 2026 amounting to 60,196.50 tonsReferences
Aini, N. N., Iriany, A., Nugroho, W. H., & Wibowo, F. L. (2022). Comparison of Adaptive Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing and Recurrent Neural Network Model for Forecasting Rainfall in Malang City. ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications, 13(2), 87–96.
Andriani, N., Wahyuningsih, S., & Siringoringo, M. (2022). Application of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter with Golden Section Optimization to Forecast Export Value of East Borneo Province. Jurnal Matematika, Statistika Dan Komputasi, 18(3), 475–483.
Atoyebi, S. B., Olayiwola, M. F., Oladapo, J. O., & Oladapo, D. I. (2023). Forecasting Currency in Circulation in Nigeria Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method. South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics, 20(1), 25–41.
Caspah, L. (2017). Modelling and Forecasting Inflation Rate in Kenya Using SARIMA and Holt-Winters Triple Exponential Smoothing. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 6(3), 161.
Dewi, N. P., & Listiowarni, I. (2020). Implementasi Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Harga Bahan Pangan di Kabupaten Pamekasan. Digital ZOne: Jurnal Teknologi Informasi & Komunikasi, 11(2), 219–231.
Efrilia, I. (2021). Comparison Of ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Methods For Forecasting CPI In The Tegal City, Central Java. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 19(02), 97–106.
Febriyanti, A. N., & Rifai, N. A. K. (2022). Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters untuk Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api di Pulau Jawa. Bandung Conference Series: Statistics, 2(2), 152–158.
Handika, I. P. S., & Satwika, I. K. S. (2023). Enhancing Sales Forecasting Accuracy Through Optimized Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing with Modified Improved Particle Swarm Optimization. Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI), 12(2), 203–212.
Hariri, F. R., & Prakasa, J. E. W. (2023). Chicken Menu Sales Forecasting System Using Multiplicative Holt-Winters Triple Exponential Smoothing. MATICS: Jurnal Ilmu Komputer Dan Teknologi Informasi , 15(1), 8–14.
Mendila, S. A., Utami, I. T., & Kartikasari, P. (2023). Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api di Pulau Jawa Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing dan Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain. Jurnal Gaussian, 12(1), 104–115.
Nurhamidah, Nusyirwan, & Faisol, A. (2020). Forcasting Seasonal Time Series Data Using The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method of Additive Models. Jurnal Matematika Integratif, 16(2), 151.
Pleños, M. C. F. (2022). Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: Application to Abaca Fiber Data. Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, 22(2), 17–29.
Rahman, D., SUmarjaya, I. W., & Sukarsa, I. K. G. (2018). Perbandingan Peramalan Hasil Produksi Ikan Menggunakan Metode Permulusan Ekspnensial Holt-Winters dan ARIMA. E-Jurnal Matematika, 7(4), 371.
Siregar, Y. J., Hartono, R., & Hardana, A. E. (2021). Peramalan Harga Cabai Rawit di Kota Malang dengan Metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoohting. Agricore: Jurnal Agribisnis Dan Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 6(2), 99–110.
Utami, R., & Atmojo, S. (2017). Perbandingan Metode Holt Exponential Smoothing dan Winter Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Souvenir. Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Asia, 11(2).
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
All articles published in the Eigen Mathematics Journal will be available for free reading and downloading. The license applied to this journal is Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike (CC BY-NC-SA).
